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U.S. Headed Toward Record Agricultural Trade Deficit in 2025

The United States is on track to post its largest-ever agricultural trade deficit in fiscal year 2025, according to newly released government data. From January to April, the U.S. imported $78.2 billion worth of agricultural products, while exports totaled just $58.5 billion  resulting in a record $19.7 billion gap for the first four months alone.

The USDA now projects the full-year deficit could reach nearly $50 billion, far surpassing last year’s $31.8 billion shortfall and continuing a three-year trend of trade deficits in the agriculture sector.

Experts say this shift is fueled by rising imports of fresh produce, wine, coffee, and other high-value food items, combined with weaker U.S. export performance due to a strong dollar, trade barriers, and global competition.

This reversal from decades of consistent surpluses raises concerns for American farmers and the future of U.S. ag exports. Analysts warn the growing trade imbalance could impact rural economies and call for urgent trade policy adjustments to regain competitive footing in global markets.

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